Polymarket Predicts Only 39% Chance of Telegram CEO Durov’s Release in August

Polymarket, a decentralized prediction marketplace, currently has bets indicating that there is only a 39% chance of Telegram CEO Durov’s release in August. At press time, shares were trading at 39 cents. However, bettors are more optimistic about a release before October, assigning a 78% probability.

Durov was arrested in 2024 at Le Bourget airport near Paris and remains detained as part of a broad investigation covering serious charges. These charges include facilitating illegal transactions, refusing to cooperate with law enforcement, involvement in child pornography and narcotics distribution, organized fraud, money laundering, and the unlawful provision of cryptographic tools.